在日本政府部门和机构的2027财年预算申请中，防卫预算申请达到约8.9万亿日元；养老金、医疗等社会保障支出预计增加约3900亿日元，而根据日本内阁府今年7月发布的2026财年经济财政白皮书，由于中东局势带来输入性通胀压力，同时劳动力短缺等结构性问题持续存在，日本经济复苏仍面临多重挑战，潜在经济增长率仍处于较低水平。那么，日本政府要想扩大军费、增加民生支出，该如何获取资金？是否能持续进行，将有哪些风险？
中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府目前收支上的矛盾，短期内仍有拼凑的办法。总的来说，高市政府的态度就是不靠多借钱，而是靠
砍优惠、砍补贴、挖闲钱、重新算账等这些办法来解决。 The second trial in connection with the death of 23-year-old Elijah McClain following an altercation with Aurora, Colorado, police began Tuesday.Nathan Woodyard was the first police officer on the scene in August 2019 and he put McClain in a carotid hold. He has pleaded not guilty to the charges of manslaughter and criminally negligent homicide.Woodyard's legal representatives declined to comment on the case.In opening arguments, Assistant Attorney General Ann Joyce argued that Woodyard's actions on Aug. 24, 2019, led to McClain's death and were not aligned with his police training, according to ABC affiliate Denver7.McClain told officers during their encounter that he was having trouble breathing and he later choked on his own vomit while he was restrained, the previous trial revealed."This trial is about the defendant and his teammates doing nothing to help Elijah McClain. This trial is about their continued callousness and indifference to Mr. McClain's suffering," she said.Attorney Megan Magdalena Downing, who represents Woodyard, argued that the ketamine that was administered by the EMTs that night was responsible for McClain's death, according to Denver7."Let me be clear — someone is guilty," Downing said. "They're not here. It's not Nathan."McClain was stopped by police on his way home from a convenience store in August 2019. A passerby called 911 to report McClain as acting "sketchy" with a ski mask on; however, the caller said there was no weapon and that no one was in danger at the time.McClain was wearing a ski mask at the time because, according to his family, he had anemia, a blood condition that can make people feel cold more easily.When officers arrived on the scene, they told McClain they had a right to stop him because he was "being suspicious."In police body camera footage, McClain can be heard telling police he was going home and that, "I have a right to go where I am going."Woodyard placed McClain in a carotid hold and he and the other two officers at the scene moved McClain by force to the grass and restrained him.McClain can be heard pleading with officers in police body camera footage, saying he can't breathe correctly."I'm so sorry. I have no gun, I don't do that stuff. I don't do fighting. Why are you taking me?" McClain can be heard saying in body camera footage."I can't breathe," McClain said, according to the body camera footage. He echoed these words several times.When EMTs arrived at the scene, McClain was given a shot of 500 milligrams of ketamine for "rapid tranquilization in order to minimize time struggling," according to department policy, and was loaded into an ambulance where he had a heart attack, according to investigators.McClain was declared brain-dead days later and died on Aug. 30, 2019.McClain's cause of death, which was previously listed as "undetermined," was listed in an amended autopsy report as "complications of ketamine administration following forcible restraint." The manner of death remained listed as "undetermined" as it was in the initial report.In the first trial in connection with McClain's death, officer Randy Roedema was found guilty of criminally negligent homicide and assault in the third degree last week.Another officer, Jason Rosenblatt, was found not guilty on charges of reckless manslaughter, assault in the second degree, and criminally negligent homicide.McClain's mother, Sheneen McClain, walked out of the courtroom with a raised fist after the split verdict and said she was not satisfied with the outcome."America needs to start telling the truth about its history and changing the way it treats all the people that pay into its systems of control," she said in a statement to ABC News on Friday. "Don't say sorry to me for humans that fail even their own kind. My soul still cries out for divine justice for my son Elijah McClain."。希望通过宽松的政策，加大国内投资和发展军工业的手段，把日本的潜在增长率抬上去，形成所谓先花钱，后靠经济增长把饼做大的剧本。
中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：日本政府这一套操作的本质有饮鸩止渴色彩，长期看风险很大。第一，目前高市采取的替代性裁员设想都有画饼嫌疑。据测算，相关措施只能提供一两万亿日元左右的空间，和高达10万亿的支出相比是杯水车薪。而且日本目前的经济发展前景并不明朗，高市能不能依靠经济增长来增加收入，也要画上一个问号。
中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第二，可能进一步加剧日本的金融风险。
B | 日本目前债务余额占GDP的比重已经非常高，进一步减税和增加支出将严重影响日本政府还债能力，加剧日元的贬值压力。日元持续走弱会有推高物价、通胀等负面影响，加重日本经济出现系统性金融风险。
中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：第三，涉及日本民生的裁员压力。消费税是日本的年金、医疗和介护等重要的稳定财源，缺口如不能妥善填补，可能影响相关服务的可持续性。
C | 食品消费税减税两年期满，自民党为了保住政权，很可能不敢再提增税，两年可能就会变成永久减收。由此社会保障最稳定的一块税基就被挖空了，进一步恶化日本民众的生活环境。
中国社科院日本研究所助理研究员 孟明铭：高市政府现在最在意的不是长期风险，而是接下来2027年9月前后的自民党总裁选和2028年夏季的参院选。近期多份民调显示，高市内阁的支持率明显下滑，所以她迫切需要通过减税来拉回中间选民，通过扩军支出取悦国内的右翼保守势力这一基本盘，稳住支持率，渡过总裁选和参议院选，把首相的板凳坐稳，把风险留给日本的未来。倘若风险快要爆雷，那么顺滑下台走人也不失是一个办法。这进一步暴露以高市为首的日本右翼势力执迷于整军扩武、推动新军国主义，为满足政治私利，不惜损害日本民生和未来的真实面目。
